Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

How “Black Lives Matter” Will Fail

How_BlackLivesMatter_Will_Fail   <– PDF

The peaceful riots that began in Minneapolis with the death of George Floyd have spread across the nation in the 35 days since, having begun as peaceful protests by “Black Lives Matter” (BLM) against alleged institutional racism in the Minneapolis Police Department.  They have now evolved into full-fledged destruction of property and an attempt to erase American culture.  The violence was partly the result of opportunists seeking to take a five-finger discount at retail stores, but more importantly, the subversive activities of the street army known as ANTIFA.  ANTIFA is a separate problem; they capitalized on the George Floyd incident as an excuse to make trouble.  Black Lives Matter has problems of its own that will ultimately cause it to fail as a movement.

The real problem with police misconduct is that it is often covered up and papered over. There are some cases, such as the one involving Michael Brown (Ferguson, MO) or Fred Gray (Baltimore, MD) that do require some investigation before an evaluation of misconduct can occur.  But in the case of George Floyd (Minneapolis, MN), nearly the entire engagement was caught on video.   Any non-government employee caught on video doing the same thing to Mr. Floyd would have been arrested for murder within the hour.  But, given that it was committed by a government employee in uniform, the natural inclination of the “oversight” board and “internal affairs” would be to cover it up and make excuses as necessary to justify the conduct of the police.  The real problem is not that misconduct is widespread or racial; the problem is that misconduct is excused and covered up when it does happen.  A similar incident was caught on video in the case of Eric Garner (New York, NY), and although a prohibited hold was utilized by the officer which at minimum contributed to Mr. Garner’s demise, the officer received the usual raise and promotion.

“Black Lives Matter” is a Marxist activist group that uses police incidents as a means to gain attention, donations, and political power, which they use to intimidate politicians and (they hope) the general population. Given that true misconduct is rare, the incident concerning George Floyd in Minneapolis on 25 May 2020 gave BLM their best opportunity in years.

BLM has developed an extensive propaganda system. It is based on the false narrative that every police department consists of 100% white racist cops who spend their entire shift shooting and lynching black people.  The true fact is that between 10 and 20 unarmed black people are killed by police every year; BLM conveniently ignores the other fact that between 4000 and 5000 black people are killed by other black people (mostly in battles over which gang gets to sell crack on what street corners).

BLM claims to desire radical changes in how police departments are operated, but history shows that if any of their recommendations are adopted, the big losers will be black people, not the wealthy activists. The goal for the leaders of BLM is the acquisition of power over society in general, in order to dictate the rules for a new societal order.  The new social order will consist of guilt by association based on race and economic status.

The BLM movement contains the seed of its own destruction. It is already evident that not a single leader of BLM cares about real black people.  The leadership of BLM never explains how a police department staffed by 60% black officers is racist against blacks.  If BLM actually cared about the lives of black people, or their prosperity, or equality, they would start asking some very hard questions of the people (Democrats) who have been running America’s largest cities for 50 years.  Here are some sample questions BLM could ask, but never will:

  1. Why are the public schools so bad in minority neighborhoods?
  2. Why is the local economy in minority neighborhoods so bad that young black men see drug dealing as the path to prosperity?
  3. Why are the occasional incidents of police misconduct so regularly excused and covered up?
  4. Why is it that in minority neighborhoods, the streets are dirty, the potholes aren’t filled, the streetlights aren’t timed correctly, and the city workers can’t get the grass cut on the city-owned property?
  5. Why are local government policies designed specifically to weaken the black family, one of the two institutions (along with Christianity) that preserved black people during the two previous Democratic Party attacks (slavery and Jim Crow)?

The reason BLM will never ask these questions is because they already know the answer: the goal of the Democratic Party, even when local offices are held by black Democrats, is to suppress black people. The fact that BLM cares nothing about actual black people will become obvious sooner or later, when the public finds out that the money donated to BLM is turned over to PACs to run political ads on behalf of Democratic candidates at all levels.  The goal once again, is to acquire political power and ultimately (if successful) to impose Marxism on America.  I am reasonably confident that the general public will tire of being called racists and reject BLM’s basic claim that all whites, Asians, Jews, and Hispanics are racist.   Mostly likely most black Americans will reject the BLM-inspired changes that will cause their quality of life to decline.

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

How I got the Wuhan Estimates Wrong

How_I_Got_The Wuhan_Estimates_Wrong   <– PDF

Back on 3 Apr 2020 I made some predictions about the number of fatalities to be expected by the end of May from the Wuhan virus, based on data then existing.  Compare my 3 Apr predictions with the actual numbers as of 30 May 2020:

Predicted,               Actual,

3 Apr 2020        30 May 2020

Italy                        27,000                 33,400

France                   22,000                 28,770

Spain                     21,000                 27,125

USA                       30,000                105,500

So I under-predicted in each case: for Italy, 19%; for France, 23%; and for Spain, 22%.  But the largest error by far was for the USA, where my prediction was low by more than 300%.  How did I get it so wrong for the USA, when the predictions for the other three, although incorrect, were not nearly as far off?

It seems there are several reasons. The most obvious one is that the predictions for Italy, France, and Spain were based on more mature data, given that China used the Wuhan virus to attack those nations much earlier. The general behavior of the disease was more fully developed by 3 Apr and the data then existing was a more reliable foundation for a prediction.  My use of the data then existing for the USA was premature.

The second reason is that the virus progressed differently in three major areas in the USA than any of the other nations and also differently than most other parts of the USA.  These three major areas are New York City and the adjoining states of Connecticut and New Jersey. Of the 105,000 deaths in the USA, approximately 29,000 occurred in New York State, 11,700 in New Jersey, 6,500 in Massachusetts, 3,900 in Connecticut, and 5,500 in Pennsylvania.  I had mentioned in the 3 Apr essay that the virus likely would spread differently in those places because: a) the density of the population, the closely-packed living conditions, and the fact that the Wuhan virus spreads much faster than other similar viruses; and b) the fact that many people in NJ and CT travel to NYC regularly on the filthy subway. I noticed those, but failed to take them into account in the calculations since there was no way at the time to determine the effects.

Third, new data suggests that people of African and Asian descent are more susceptible to the Wuhan virus than those of the Caucasian, Semitic, or American native races.  If so, that would indicate a higher casualty rate in the USA because about 12% of the population of the USA is of African origin, whereas there are relatively few of (black) African origin in the three European nations.

The fourth reason is that the people in many USA states, especially in the Northeast, were subject to “stay-at-home” mandates via Executive Orders by state Governors. A great many people were affected not only by the virus but by loss of livelihood.  It turns out the virus spreads faster indoors than outdoors.  In the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic, people were encouraged to leave the windows open in their homes at all times in order to maximize the circulation of fresh air.  Whether such advice was given this time, I don’t know; suffice to say, keeping people indoors certainly aided the virus and nearly ruined the local economy.  It is likely that the Chinese Communist Party is grateful to those Governors for their cooperation.

Fifth, it appears that people in nursing homes suffered very large casualty rates owing to moronic Executive Orders by Governors in at least three states: New York, New Jersey, and Michigan.  It has been estimated that up to 40% of casualties in those states arose because of these orders; that would amount to 16,400 deaths in New York and New Jersey alone.  Under those orders, nursing homes were required to admit people who had already tested positive for the virus, thus spreading it throughout the most vulnerable population.  Once again, the Chinese Communist Party probably has taken notice and supports those Governors for their cooperation.

These five reasons illustrate the general difficulty in making predictions: there are a great many unknowns and extrapolations from premature data can lead to large errors in the estimates. The original predictions of casualties by the CDC estimated 1,000,000 to 2,000,000 deaths in the USA, later revised (after some precautions were taken by the public at the urging of the CDC) downward to 100,000 to 200,000.

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

On the Wuhan Virus

OnTheWuhanVirus   <– PDF

This virus originated in Wuhan, a city of about 11 million people, in the Hubei province of Communist China.  It is not clear exactly how it originated, but there are three possibilities: a) it originated in one of the famous “wet markets” that sell live exotic animals; b) that it escaped accidentally from the Wuhan Institute of Virology; or c) it was released deliberately from that Institute as a trial run for a biological attack.

Socialists and tyrants in general do not care about the people they rule. To a Socialist, the individual citizens/serfs/slaves are nothing more than labor units or taxation units to be used up and disposed of as desired by the ruling elite.  It is important to remember that no Socialist leader can tell the truth about anything, as doing so would expose the failure of the system that they benefit from so handsomely.  The Chinese government experienced an outbreak starting in Dec 2019, which infected about 81,000 people and caused about 3,300 fatalities.  But then the Chinese government suddenly announced on 20 Mar 2020 that new cases had stopped altogether, except for a handful that was brought in by foreigners.  No rational person believes that (although the New York Times did).  The new cases did not stop: they simply become inconvenient politically for the Socialist rulers.  To prove it, they even evicted the pro-China New York Times reporters on the grounds that one of them might accidentally report an inconvenient fact.  The Chinese government expects us to believe that there were a total of only 25 cases in the city of Beijing, having a population of 20 million or so.  Given what we now know about how the virus spreads based on data from Italy, Spain, France, and the U. S., it is reasonable to conclude that the number of cases and fatalities in China is at least twenty times and possibly fifty times the official numbers.  There are reports in fact that the police locked entire apartment buildings from the outside, thus killing all those trapped inside.  So what else is new?  The Chinese Communist government probably starves a million people to death every year just to maintain its mass murderer certification.

I doubt that this was deliberate on the part of the Chinese, for three reasons: a) they were caught off-guard by it; b) it imposed an economic hardship on their production facilities; and c) if it were true, China would have to administer the antidote to 1,000,000,000 people in the span of a few weeks.  It does not appear that China has that capability.  In all likelihood this was released accidentally from the research lab.  That possibility seems to fit with other independent claims that the Horseshoe bat, from which this virus originated, was not sold in the open markets in Wuhan.

Here is a crude statistical analysis and projection. From the available compiled data as of 3 Apr 2020 [1], excluding China and Iran (since their data cannot be trusted), it appears that the virus behaves as follows in the countries that have taken reasonable precautions to limit the spread:

  1. The average time from onset of symptoms to death is about 14 days.
  2. The time from first case to peak of deaths is between 53 and 63 days.
  3. The average time from first case to first fatality ranges from a low of 25 days in Spain to 32 days in the US.
  4. The average time between the first reported fatality and the peak of fatalities varies slightly: For Italy, is about 27 days; for Spain, 25 days, for France, 30, and for the US, about 31. That means the distribution of fatalities, if modeled as a Gaussian distribution has standard deviations (sigma) of 9, 8, 10, and 11 days respectively for these four nations.

Figure 1: Expected Fatalities Based on Gaussian Distribution

If we assume that the distribution of cases and corresponding fatalities is approximately Gaussian, we can conclude, as shown on Figure 1:

  1. The total number of fatalities in a nation will be double the number experienced in the first 60 days or so. Given what has been learned, and the advent of better treatments and better use of equipment, the total fatalities in Italy will not exceed 27,000; in Spain; less than 21,000, and in France, less than 22,000.
  2. For the US, which experienced its first case on 20 Jan 2020, the peak in fatalities should occur 12 Apr 20 (excluding New York City and surrounding areas as explained below).
  3. As of 3 Apr 20, the number of fatalities in the US is about 7100, and we would expect total fatalities to not exceed 14000 or so. But that will not be the case, as will be described below.
  4. The “bending of the curve” as so often described will occur with high confidence after +1 standard deviations. From the data above, 3 standard deviations is about 60 days, and therefore there will be high confidence of being on the “downward slope” about 80 days after the first case is reported, which approximately corresponds to about 10 days after the peak of fatalities (see the stars on Figure 1) . For Italy, that should occur around 9 Apr 2020; for Spain, around 11 Apr 2020; for France, around 19 Apr; and for the US would be 23 Apr 2020. Again, that is not going to happen in the US as described next.

Why is the US behaving differently than the other nations?  There are four reasons:

  1. About half of all US cases are centered in New York City and the two adjoining states, Connecticut and New Jersey. This is a very densely populated area, and a large number of people in Connecticut and New Jersey regularly commute to New York City.
  2. In normal times, a great many people in the New York City metro area and these two adjoining states spent 2 hours each day on filthy disease-ridden tin cans known as the New York City Subway system. It is this crowded subway that contributed to the spread of the virus.
  3. The Mayor of New York City (Bill DeBlasio) and Governor of New York (Andrew Cuomo) were slow in advising residents to practice “social distancing”, and even when they finally gave good advice it was widely ignored since their personal credibility is so low. The public was naturally skeptical and did not take the precautions they could have.
  4. Many residents of New York City have summer homes upstate New York or in Florida. As they fled the city (can’t blame them for that), they spread the virus to rural areas in New York State and to southern Florida, spawning new infections in those areas.

The virus thus incubated for an additional 10 to 14 days in New York City; therefore it is reasonable to conclude the total peak fatalities in the US (led by New York City) should occur around 22 Apr or so, and the date at which the US as a whole is one standard deviation past the peak will be around 3 May or so. The total number of fatalities for the entire USA should be about 30,000 or so by the end of May 2020.  But those dates will be driven by New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and possibly Florida.  The rest of the nation should be at the downward-trend 1 sigma point around 23 Apr 2020 or so as mentioned above.

I refer to the recent Covid-19 virus as the Wuhan virus because it is consistent with the traditional naming of viruses based on their origin.  To those who now claim that I must be a racist for calling it Wuhan, I can only say, your Mama is calling, time to go upstairs and eat the brownies she made for you.  Those of you who like to call people racists over a naming convention do not make the same racism claims when people refer to Lyme disease (named for Lyme, CT.), or the “Spanish” flu, or the “Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome” (MERS).  Your Mama just put whipped cream on your brownies: see how well she takes care of you?


Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »

Donald Trump’s Two Crimes

DonaldTrumpsTwoCrimes_20200111  <– PDF

The House of Representatives impeached President Trump on 18 Dec 2019 in the form of two articles:

Article 1: “Using the powers of his high office, President Trump solicited the interference of a foreign government, Ukraine, in the 2020 United States Presidential election. He did so through a scheme or course of conduct that included soliciting the Government of Ukraine to publicly announce investigations that would benefit his reelection, harm the election prospects of a political opponent, and influence the 2020 United States Presidential election to his advantage. President Trump also sought to pressure the Government of Ukraine to take these steps by conditioning official United States Government acts of significant value to Ukraine on its public announcement of the investigations. President Trump engaged in this scheme or course of conduct for corrupt purposes in pursuit of personal political benefit. In so doing, President Trump used the powers of the Presidency in a manner that compromised the national security of the United States and undermined the integrity of the United States democratic process. He thus ignored and injured the interests of the Nation.”

Article 2: “The Constitution provides that the House of Representatives “shall have the sole Power of Impeachment” and that the President “shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors”. In his conduct of the office of President of the United States and in violation of his constitutional oath faithfully to execute the office of President of the United States and, to the best of his ability, preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States, and in violation of his constitutional duty to take care that the laws be faithfully executed—Donald J. Trump has directed the unprecedented, categorical, and indiscriminate defiance of subpoenas issued by the House of Representatives pursuant to its “sole Power of Impeachment”. President Trump has abused the powers of the Presidency in a manner offensive to, and subversive of, the Constitution, in that:

The House of Representatives has engaged in an impeachment inquiry focused on President Trump’s corrupt solicitation of the Government of Ukraine to interfere in the 2020 United States Presidential election. As part of this impeachment inquiry, the Committees undertaking the investigation served subpoenas seeking documents and testimony deemed vital to the inquiry from various Executive Branch agencies and offices, and current and former officials.”

The first article claims that there was a quid pro quo in regards to releasing foreign aid to Ukraine; the second states that Trump has prevented Congress from exercising its powers of supervision and over­sight.

The first article is false for two reasons. The first is: if any taxpayer money is sent to any foreign govern­ment, especially one known to be as corrupt as Ukraine, there should be a quid pro quo.  Why would any logical taxpayer want a President to send money to a foreign government without getting something in return?  Are we American taxpayers a bunch of dimwitted Santa Clauses — we give money away to peo­ple known to be crooks?  Secondly, Joe Biden has already bragged on video that he intimidated and blackmailed the Ukrainian government into terminating an investigation into his son’s (Hunter Biden) em­ployment with a Ukrainian energy firm.  Now put this in perspective: suppose Mr. Biden wins the Democ­ratic nomination, and then goes on to defeat Mr. Trump in the 2020 election.  Do you, a citizen, want a President Biden that can be blackmailed by Ukraine in order to cover for his son?  Keep in mind that if Ukraine has dirt on either Biden, it has already been speedily transmitted to Russia.  Do you want Putin giving orders to President Biden?  Trump had a perfectly legitimate reason to ask the Ukrainians to either clear Biden or expose any crimes in order to ensure that Americans do not inadvertently find themselves voting for a crook.

The second article is also false. There is no provision in the Constitution that guarantees that Congress can have any Executive branch document it wants.  Taken to its extreme logical progression, the Democ­rats are claiming that the Presidential veto power is unconstitutional.  Also, subpoenas are routinely arbi­trated by a petition to the courts, but the Democrats in Congress made no attempt to do so.  If the De­mocrats were sincere about seeing all Executive documents, surely they would have impeached Presi­dent Obama for declaring Executive Privilege regarding the entire Fast and Furious gun-running scheme (providing guns to the Mexican drug cartels).

But Donald Trump has committed two crimes which can never be forgiven nor forgotten nor excused by the ruling elite:

Crime 1: Donald Trump asked “Why?”

  1. Why is the US supporting NATO when the other members of NATO, much closer to the assumed Russian threat, do not support it commensurately? If the French would not help us get the Ger­mans out of France in WW II, why would we assume the Western Europeans would help us get the Russians out of Western Europe now?
  2. Why do the Western Europeans and the US foreign policy bureaucrats believe Russia would or could invade Western Europe in the first place?
  3. Why is America attempting to cure the ills of the open sewer known as the Middle East? Why are we spending blood and treasure attempting to provide the virtues of democratic institutions on a group of people who believe that “freedom” means of the ability to kill your neighbor because he attends a different mosque? Why are we trying to guarantee free and fair elections in Baghdad, when we can’t seem to have one in Chicago?
  4. Why is America allowing 30 million illegal immigrants into American without knowing who they are, where they are, or what they are doing? Why is the American taxpayer being expected to pay the living expenses of illegal immigrants?

Crime 2: Donald Trump asked “How?”

  1. How does the continued presence of American troops in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia benefit the American people?
  2. How are illegal immigrants improving the lives of Americans who are struggling along paycheck to paycheck as it is?
  3. How has the ruling elite served the American people these last 40 years, given the general decline in wages and opportunity, combined with a decline in the quality of the education system?
  4. How has the American citizen benefitted from trade deals with China in which the Chinese get to steal everything they can, force technology transfers, and export to the US cheap crap made of Chinesium by undercutting American workers?

Those are Donald Trump’s real crimes, and that is why he will be pursued by the ruling elite for the rest of his life, even after he leaves office.

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »