On the Wuhan Virus

OnTheWuhanVirus   <– PDF

This virus originated in Wuhan, a city of about 11 million people, in the Hubei province of Communist China.  It is not clear exactly how it originated, but there are three possibilities: a) it originated in one of the famous “wet markets” that sell live exotic animals; b) that it escaped accidentally from the Wuhan Institute of Virology; or c) it was released deliberately from that Institute as a trial run for a biological attack.

Socialists and tyrants in general do not care about the people they rule. To a Socialist, the individual citizens/serfs/slaves are nothing more than labor units or taxation units to be used up and disposed of as desired by the ruling elite.  It is important to remember that no Socialist leader can tell the truth about anything, as doing so would expose the failure of the system that they benefit from so handsomely.  The Chinese government experienced an outbreak starting in Dec 2019, which infected about 81,000 people and caused about 3,300 fatalities.  But then the Chinese government suddenly announced on 20 Mar 2020 that new cases had stopped altogether, except for a handful that was brought in by foreigners.  No rational person believes that (although the New York Times did).  The new cases did not stop: they simply become inconvenient politically for the Socialist rulers.  To prove it, they even evicted the pro-China New York Times reporters on the grounds that one of them might accidentally report an inconvenient fact.  The Chinese government expects us to believe that there were a total of only 25 cases in the city of Beijing, having a population of 20 million or so.  Given what we now know about how the virus spreads based on data from Italy, Spain, France, and the U. S., it is reasonable to conclude that the number of cases and fatalities in China is at least twenty times and possibly fifty times the official numbers.  There are reports in fact that the police locked entire apartment buildings from the outside, thus killing all those trapped inside.  So what else is new?  The Chinese Communist government probably starves a million people to death every year just to maintain its mass murderer certification.

I doubt that this was deliberate on the part of the Chinese, for three reasons: a) they were caught off-guard by it; b) it imposed an economic hardship on their production facilities; and c) if it were true, China would have to administer the antidote to 1,000,000,000 people in the span of a few weeks.  It does not appear that China has that capability.  In all likelihood this was released accidentally from the research lab.  That possibility seems to fit with other independent claims that the Horseshoe bat, from which this virus originated, was not sold in the open markets in Wuhan.

Here is a crude statistical analysis and projection. From the available compiled data as of 3 Apr 2020 [1], excluding China and Iran (since their data cannot be trusted), it appears that the virus behaves as follows in the countries that have taken reasonable precautions to limit the spread:

  1. The average time from onset of symptoms to death is about 14 days.
  2. The time from first case to peak of deaths is between 53 and 63 days.
  3. The average time from first case to first fatality ranges from a low of 25 days in Spain to 32 days in the US.
  4. The average time between the first reported fatality and the peak of fatalities varies slightly: For Italy, is about 27 days; for Spain, 25 days, for France, 30, and for the US, about 31. That means the distribution of fatalities, if modeled as a Gaussian distribution has standard deviations (sigma) of 9, 8, 10, and 11 days respectively for these four nations.

Figure 1: Expected Fatalities Based on Gaussian Distribution

If we assume that the distribution of cases and corresponding fatalities is approximately Gaussian, we can conclude, as shown on Figure 1:

  1. The total number of fatalities in a nation will be double the number experienced in the first 60 days or so. Given what has been learned, and the advent of better treatments and better use of equipment, the total fatalities in Italy will not exceed 27,000; in Spain; less than 21,000, and in France, less than 22,000.
  2. For the US, which experienced its first case on 20 Jan 2020, the peak in fatalities should occur 12 Apr 20 (excluding New York City and surrounding areas as explained below).
  3. As of 3 Apr 20, the number of fatalities in the US is about 7100, and we would expect total fatalities to not exceed 14000 or so. But that will not be the case, as will be described below.
  4. The “bending of the curve” as so often described will occur with high confidence after +1 standard deviations. From the data above, 3 standard deviations is about 60 days, and therefore there will be high confidence of being on the “downward slope” about 80 days after the first case is reported, which approximately corresponds to about 10 days after the peak of fatalities (see the stars on Figure 1) . For Italy, that should occur around 9 Apr 2020; for Spain, around 11 Apr 2020; for France, around 19 Apr; and for the US would be 23 Apr 2020. Again, that is not going to happen in the US as described next.

Why is the US behaving differently than the other nations?  There are four reasons:

  1. About half of all US cases are centered in New York City and the two adjoining states, Connecticut and New Jersey. This is a very densely populated area, and a large number of people in Connecticut and New Jersey regularly commute to New York City.
  2. In normal times, a great many people in the New York City metro area and these two adjoining states spent 2 hours each day on filthy disease-ridden tin cans known as the New York City Subway system. It is this crowded subway that contributed to the spread of the virus.
  3. The Mayor of New York City (Bill DeBlasio) and Governor of New York (Andrew Cuomo) were slow in advising residents to practice “social distancing”, and even when they finally gave good advice it was widely ignored since their personal credibility is so low. The public was naturally skeptical and did not take the precautions they could have.
  4. Many residents of New York City have summer homes upstate New York or in Florida. As they fled the city (can’t blame them for that), they spread the virus to rural areas in New York State and to southern Florida, spawning new infections in those areas.

The virus thus incubated for an additional 10 to 14 days in New York City; therefore it is reasonable to conclude the total peak fatalities in the US (led by New York City) should occur around 22 Apr or so, and the date at which the US as a whole is one standard deviation past the peak will be around 3 May or so. The total number of fatalities for the entire USA should be about 30,000 or so by the end of May 2020.  But those dates will be driven by New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and possibly Florida.  The rest of the nation should be at the downward-trend 1 sigma point around 23 Apr 2020 or so as mentioned above.

I refer to the recent Covid-19 virus as the Wuhan virus because it is consistent with the traditional naming of viruses based on their origin.  To those who now claim that I must be a racist for calling it Wuhan, I can only say, your Mama is calling, time to go upstairs and eat the brownies she made for you.  Those of you who like to call people racists over a naming convention do not make the same racism claims when people refer to Lyme disease (named for Lyme, CT.), or the “Spanish” flu, or the “Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome” (MERS).  Your Mama just put whipped cream on your brownies: see how well she takes care of you?

[1]        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic

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